South Korea could lose twice in the group stage — or even fail to win a single match — and still reach the knockout rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

As Hong Myung-bo's side prepares to face the Czech Republic in its opening Group A match on June 12, the expanded 48-team tournament has introduced a qualification system unlike any previous World Cup. In addition to the top two teams from each group, eight of the 12 third-placed teams will also advance to the Round of 32.

The format change means that group-stage qualification scenarios have become significantly more complicated. With 48 nations participating instead of the traditional 32, finishing third no longer necessarily means elimination.

Group standings are determined first by points and then by head-to-head records. When comparing third-placed teams from different groups, points and goal difference become the key criteria.

The concept is familiar to football fans. Similar systems have been used in numerous international tournaments and were previously often referred to as a "wild-card" format. In fact, it is not entirely new to the World Cup. Between the 1986 World Cup in Mexico and the 1994 tournament in the United States, the competition featured 24 teams, allowing several third-placed sides to progress to the knockout stage.

To assess how low the qualification bar can be, results from 13 major tournaments featuring third-place qualification were examined, including three World Cups, five Olympic women's football tournaments, two AFC Asian Cups and three UEFA European Championships.

The worst group-stage record ever to reach the knockout rounds was the equivalent of two points under the modern three-point-for-a-win system.

The most notable examples came at the 1986 World Cup, where Bulgaria and Uruguay both advanced despite recording two draws and one defeat in the group stage. At the time, wins were worth two points rather than three. Both teams progressed while Hungary, which won one match and lost two, was eliminated. Even when adjusted to today's scoring system, Bulgaria would still have qualified.

A record of one win and two defeats is not always safe, but it frequently proves enough if accompanied by a respectable goal difference. In six of the 13 tournaments examined, the qualification cutoff was effectively equivalent to one win and two defeats.

Three draws have also been enough on occasion. That happened at the 1990 World Cup and UEFA Euro 2016. Since teams that record three draws often finish with a goal difference of zero, they can compare favorably to teams with one win and two losses, which frequently carry a negative goal difference.

One of the most famous examples was Portugal at Euro 2016. After drawing all three group matches and advancing as a third-placed team, Portugal went on to win the entire tournament.

A record of one win, one draw and one defeat has proven even more reliable. In tournaments where third-placed teams could advance, that total of four points has consistently been enough to survive the group stage.

For South Korea, the implications are significant.

A victory over the Czech Republic would dramatically improve the team's chances of reaching the Round of 32. Even if Hong's side were to lose its remaining matches against Mexico and South Africa, avoiding heavy defeats could leave it in contention through the third-place rankings.

A draw against either Mexico or South Africa after defeating the Czech Republic would likely secure qualification outright.

Even a defeat in the opening match would not be disastrous. Unlike previous 32-team World Cups, the expanded format offers considerably more room for recovery. South Korea would still have two matches remaining and multiple realistic pathways to the knockout stage.

The new World Cup format may reward consistency more than perfection, and for teams that stumble early, the door to the knockout rounds remains open far longer than in previous editions.